Projected population growth

Nuggets – bite size chunks of London


London’s projected population growth 2016–26, by borough

 
Multicolour boroughs map - pop growth 2016-2026 - 664

In May 2016 the Office for National Statistics released updated population projections for all English local authorities, including the London boroughs.

The ONS issued a statistical bulletin focusing on the ten-year period from mid-2014 to mid-2024, making the following points:

  • London, the East of England and the South East regions are all projected to grow at a faster rate than England
  • London is projected to grow the fastest (13.7 per cent), followed by the East (8.9 per cent) and the South East (8.1 per cent) over the ten-year period to mid-2024, compared with the projected growth for England of 7.5 per cent over the same time period
  • Projected change in population for local authorities ranges from a fall of 4.3 per cent in Barrow-in-Furness to growth of 25.1 per cent for Tower Hamlets over the ten years to mid-2024
  • Nine of the ten fastest growing areas are in London, with the exception being Corby in Northamptonshire

Using the full ONS dataset, Hidden London has extracted the projected growth rates for each London borough (plus the City) for mid-2016 to mid-2026 and these are shown in the table below (as well as in the map above).*

Projected growth for 2016–26 is generally slightly slower than for 2014–24, suggesting that some of the most rapid rises may have already taken place (in 2014 to 2016). Nevertheless, forecast population increases such as Tower Hamlets’ 20 per cent and Barking and Dagenham’s 18 per cent are still explosive by British standards. In sharp contrast, Kensington and Chelsea’s projected two per cent increase is remarkably sedate.


Borough 2016 population 2026 population Projected increase
Barking and Dagenham 206,934 244,139 +18.0%
Barnet 388,416 441,372 +13.6%
Bexley 245,181 273,647 +11.6%
Brent 330,770 362,949 +9.7%
Bromley 328,715 368,606 +12.1%
Camden 248,472 280,730 +13.0%
City of London 8,672 9,886 +14.0%
Croydon 385,670 429,833 +11.5%
Ealing 349,200 373,375 +6.9%
Enfield 334,279 377,022 +12.8%
Greenwich 278,259 316,423 +13.7%
Hackney 273,506 312,957 +14.4%
Hammersmith and Fulham 182,005 191,331 +5.1%
Haringey 276,044 305,189 +10.6%
Harrow 251,960 276,758 +9.8%
Havering 251,513 283,401 +12.7%
Hillingdon 304,218 347,642 +14.3%
Hounslow 275,083 308,099 +12.0%
Islington 232,196 262,507 +13.1%
Kensington and Chelsea 158,011 161,310 +2.1%
Kingston upon Thames 176,952 202,097 +14.2%
Lambeth 328,076 357,980 +9.1%
Lewisham 301,541 341,049 +13.1%
Merton 208,816 230,147 +10.2%
Newham 340,736 388,700 +14.1%
Redbridge 303,570 349,541 +15.1%
Richmond upon Thames 199,715 224,830 +12.6%
Southwark 314,575 351,880 +11.9%
Sutton 203,067 227,859 +12.2%
Tower Hamlets 303,891 365,382 +20.2%
Waltham Forest 275,578 304,484 +10.5%
Wandsworth 320,598 347,463 +8.4%
Westminster 246,149 274,161 +11.4%
Greater London total 8,832,370 9,892,748 +12.0%

See also Hidden London’s page on London demographics.

* Source: ONS Subnational Population Projections, Local Authorities in England: Z1, 2014 based, release date: 25 May 2016. NB The figures for 2016 are themselves projections (based on the mid-2014 estimates). Also, the map at the top of the page is not ‘colour coded’; the colouring is solely an aesthetic enhancement. You can view an enlarged version of the map on Twitter.