Projected population growth

Nuggets – bite size chunks of London


London’s projected population growth 2016–26, by borough

Multicolour boroughs map - pop growth 2016-2026 - 664

In May 2016 the Office for National Statis­tics released updated popu­la­tion projec­tions for all English local author­i­ties, including the London boroughs.

The ONS issued a statis­tical bulletin focusing on the ten-year period from mid-2014 to mid-2024, making the following points:

  • London, the East of England and the South East regions are all projected to grow at a faster rate than England
  • London is projected to grow the fastest (13.7 per cent), followed by the East (8.9 per cent) and the South East (8.1 per cent) over the ten-year period to mid-2024, compared with the projected growth for England of 7.5 per cent over the same time period
  • Projected change in popu­la­tion for local author­i­ties ranges from a fall of 4.3 per cent in Barrow-in-Furness to growth of 25.1 per cent for Tower Hamlets over the ten years to mid-2024
  • Nine of the ten fastest growing areas are in London, with the exception being Corby in Northamp­ton­shire

Using the full ONS dataset, Hidden London has extracted the projected growth rates for each London borough (plus the City) for mid-2016 to mid-2026 and these are shown in the table below (as well as in the map above).*

Projected growth for 2016–26 is generally slightly slower than for 2014–24, suggesting that some of the most rapid rises may have already taken place (in 2014 to 2016). Never­the­less, forecast popu­la­tion increases such as Tower Hamlets’ 20 per cent and Barking and Dagen­ham’s 18 per cent are still explosive by British standards. In sharp contrast, Kens­ington and Chelsea’s projected two per cent increase is remark­ably sedate.

 

Borough2016 popu­la­tion2026 popu­la­tionProjected increase
Barking and Dagenham206,934244,139+18.0%
Barnet388,416441,372+13.6%
Bexley245,181273,647+11.6%
Brent330,770362,949+9.7%
Bromley328,715368,606+12.1%
Camden248,472280,730+13.0%
City of London8,6729,886+14.0%
Croydon385,670429,833+11.5%
Ealing349,200373,375+6.9%
Enfield334,279377,022+12.8%
Greenwich278,259316,423+13.7%
Hackney273,506312,957+14.4%
Hammer­smith and Fulham182,005191,331+5.1%
Haringey276,044305,189+10.6%
Harrow251,960276,758+9.8%
Havering251,513283,401+12.7%
Hillingdon304,218347,642+14.3%
Hounslow275,083308,099+12.0%
Islington232,196262,507+13.1%
Kens­ington and Chelsea158,011161,310+2.1%
Kingston upon Thames176,952202,097+14.2%
Lambeth328,076357,980+9.1%
Lewisham301,541341,049+13.1%
Merton208,816230,147+10.2%
Newham340,736388,700+14.1%
Redbridge303,570349,541+15.1%
Richmond upon Thames199,715224,830+12.6%
Southwark314,575351,880+11.9%
Sutton203,067227,859+12.2%
Tower Hamlets303,891365,382+20.2%
Waltham Forest275,578304,484+10.5%
Wandsworth320,598347,463+8.4%
West­min­ster246,149274,161+11.4%
Greater London total8,832,3709,892,748+12.0%

See also Hidden London’s page on London demo­graphics.

* Source: ONS Subnational Population Projections, Local Authorities in England: Z1, 2014 based, release date: 25 May 2016. NB The figures for 2016 are themselves projections (based on the mid-2014 estimates). Also, the map at the top of the page is not ‘colour coded’; the colouring is solely an aesthetic enhancement. You can view an enlarged version of the map on Twitter.