Projected population growth

Nuggets – bite size chunks of London


London’s projected population growth 2016–26, by borough

Multicolour boroughs map - pop growth 2016-2026 - 664

In May 2016 the Office for Nation­al Sta­tis­tics released updat­ed pop­u­la­tion pro­jec­tions for all Eng­lish local author­i­ties, includ­ing the Lon­don bor­oughs.

The ONS issued a sta­tis­ti­cal bul­letin focus­ing on the ten-year peri­od from mid-2014 to mid-2024, mak­ing the fol­low­ing points:

  • Lon­don, the East of Eng­land and the South East regions are all pro­ject­ed to grow at a faster rate than Eng­land
  • Lon­don is pro­ject­ed to grow the fastest (13.7 per cent), fol­lowed by the East (8.9 per cent) and the South East (8.1 per cent) over the ten-year peri­od to mid-2024, com­pared with the pro­ject­ed growth for Eng­land of 7.5 per cent over the same time peri­od
  • Pro­ject­ed change in pop­u­la­tion for local author­i­ties ranges from a fall of 4.3 per cent in Bar­row-in-Fur­ness to growth of 25.1 per cent for Tow­er Ham­lets over the ten years to mid-2024
  • Nine of the ten fastest grow­ing areas are in Lon­don, with the excep­tion being Cor­by in Northamp­ton­shire

Using the full ONS dataset, Hid­den Lon­don has extract­ed the pro­ject­ed growth rates for each Lon­don bor­ough (plus the City) for mid-2016 to mid-2026 and these are shown in the table below (as well as in the map above).*

Pro­ject­ed growth for 2016–26 is gen­er­al­ly slight­ly slow­er than for 2014–24, sug­gest­ing that some of the most rapid ris­es may have already tak­en place (in 2014 to 2016). Nev­er­the­less, fore­cast pop­u­la­tion increas­es such as Tow­er Ham­lets’ 20 per cent and Bark­ing and Dagen­ham’s 18 per cent are still explo­sive by British stan­dards. In sharp con­trast, Kens­ing­ton and Chelsea’s pro­ject­ed two per cent increase is remark­ably sedate.

 

Bor­ough2016 pop­u­la­tion2026 pop­u­la­tionPro­ject­ed increase
Bark­ing and Dagen­ham206,934244,139+18.0%
Bar­net388,416441,372+13.6%
Bex­ley245,181273,647+11.6%
Brent330,770362,949+9.7%
Brom­ley328,715368,606+12.1%
Cam­den248,472280,730+13.0%
City of Lon­don8,6729,886+14.0%
Croy­don385,670429,833+11.5%
Eal­ing349,200373,375+6.9%
Enfield334,279377,022+12.8%
Green­wich278,259316,423+13.7%
Hack­ney273,506312,957+14.4%
Ham­mer­smith and Ful­ham182,005191,331+5.1%
Haringey276,044305,189+10.6%
Har­row251,960276,758+9.8%
Haver­ing251,513283,401+12.7%
Hilling­don304,218347,642+14.3%
Houn­slow275,083308,099+12.0%
Isling­ton232,196262,507+13.1%
Kens­ing­ton and Chelsea158,011161,310+2.1%
Kingston upon Thames176,952202,097+14.2%
Lam­beth328,076357,980+9.1%
Lewisham301,541341,049+13.1%
Mer­ton208,816230,147+10.2%
Newham340,736388,700+14.1%
Red­bridge303,570349,541+15.1%
Rich­mond upon Thames199,715224,830+12.6%
South­wark314,575351,880+11.9%
Sut­ton203,067227,859+12.2%
Tow­er Ham­lets303,891365,382+20.2%
Waltham For­est275,578304,484+10.5%
Wandsworth320,598347,463+8.4%
West­min­ster246,149274,161+11.4%
Greater Lon­don total8,832,3709,892,748+12.0%

See also Hid­den Lon­don’s page on Lon­don demo­graph­ics.

* Source: ONS Subnational Population Projections, Local Authorities in England: Z1, 2014 based, release date: 25 May 2016. NB The figures for 2016 are themselves projections (based on the mid-2014 estimates). Also, the map at the top of the page is not ‘colour coded’; the colouring is solely an aesthetic enhancement. You can view an enlarged version of the map on Twitter.