Projected population growth

Nuggets – bite size chunks of London


London’s projected population growth 2016–26, by borough

Multicolour boroughs map - pop growth 2016-2026 - 664

In May 2016 the Office for National Statistics released updated population projec­tions for all English local author­ities, including the London boroughs.

The ONS issued a statistical bulletin focusing on the ten-year period from mid-2014 to mid-2024, making the following points:

  • London, the East of England and the South East regions are all projected to grow at a faster rate than England
  • London is projected to grow the fastest (13.7 per cent), followed by the East (8.9 per cent) and the South East (8.1 per cent) over the ten-year period to mid-2024, compared with the projected growth for England of 7.5 per cent over the same time period
  • Projected change in population for local author­ities ranges from a fall of 4.3 per cent in Barrow-in-Furness to growth of 25.1 per cent for Tower Hamlets over the ten years to mid-2024
  • Nine of the ten fastest growing areas are in London, with the exception being Corby in Northamptonshire

Using the full ONS dataset, Hidden London has extracted the projected growth rates for each London borough (plus the City) for mid-2016 to mid-2026 and these are shown in the table below (as well as in the map above).*

Projected growth for 2016–26 is generally slightly slower than for 2014–24, suggesting that some of the most rapid rises may have already taken place (in 2014 to 2016). Nevertheless, forecast population increases such as Tower Hamlets’ 20 per cent and Barking and Dagenham’s 18 per cent are still explosive by British standards. In sharp contrast, Kensington and Chelsea’s projected two per cent increase is remarkably sedate.

 

Borough2016 population2026 populationProjected increase
Barking and Dagenham206,934244,139+18.0%
Barnet388,416441,372+13.6%
Bexley245,181273,647+11.6%
Brent330,770362,949+9.7%
Bromley328,715368,606+12.1%
Camden248,472280,730+13.0%
City of London8,6729,886+14.0%
Croydon385,670429,833+11.5%
Ealing349,200373,375+6.9%
Enfield334,279377,022+12.8%
Greenwich278,259316,423+13.7%
Hackney273,506312,957+14.4%
Hammersmith and Fulham182,005191,331+5.1%
Haringey276,044305,189+10.6%
Harrow251,960276,758+9.8%
Havering251,513283,401+12.7%
Hillingdon304,218347,642+14.3%
Hounslow275,083308,099+12.0%
Islington232,196262,507+13.1%
Kensington and Chelsea158,011161,310+2.1%
Kingston upon Thames176,952202,097+14.2%
Lambeth328,076357,980+9.1%
Lewisham301,541341,049+13.1%
Merton208,816230,147+10.2%
Newham340,736388,700+14.1%
Redbridge303,570349,541+15.1%
Richmond upon Thames199,715224,830+12.6%
Southwark314,575351,880+11.9%
Sutton203,067227,859+12.2%
Tower Hamlets303,891365,382+20.2%
Waltham Forest275,578304,484+10.5%
Wandsworth320,598347,463+8.4%
Westminster246,149274,161+11.4%
Greater London total8,832,3709,892,748+12.0%

See also Hidden London’s page on London demographics.

* Source: ONS Subnational Population Projections, Local Authorities in England: Z1, 2014 based, release date: 25 May 2016. NB The figures for 2016 are themselves projections (based on the mid-2014 estimates). Also, the map at the top of the page is not ‘colour coded’; the colouring is solely an aesthetic enhancement. You can view an enlarged version of the map on Twitter.